Is it Really Shocking that Donald Trump won?

I am one of those who chose to continue with their work normally despite all the buzz and excitement in bars, offices and social media generated by the US elections.  My position is simple.  Unlike UK where I am a part-time resident, it does not matter to me who occupies the US highest political office.  I also highly doubt that it matters to my home country Uganda, who the US President is.  My belief is that the US as a country has negligible interest in our affairs.  If they do have a foreign policy, it is probably a standing (and generalized) policy towards all small nations like ours situated in the middle of Africa - and that policy is simply to ensure that no body anti-US establishes a base here.  Period.  A particular individual elected as US president will not influence how much investment comes to Uganda or how much technology transfer there should be.

Not being bothered by the excitement does not mean I was not following the news.  I generally wake up to CNN, BBC, Sky, Al Jazeera and a few sports channels every morning.  And today was no exception.  As soon as I turned on the TV set and found myself on the channel that was occupied the previous night – CNN, I noted that Donald Trump – the man I prefer to call the Don – was performing well.  It was only 5.30 am in Uganda and not so many results had been reported – in fact most states were still reporting under 50%, if at all.   My phone notification sound kept going off with news of the results every 30 minutes or so in the early morning and by mid-morning it was clear that the Don was winning the US Presidency.  Once the news was confirmed, many people expressed shock and postmortems started.  A friend of mine sent me this text: ‘I remember a month ago in Nairobi you said with such confidence that Trump was going to win the US election and I quietly dismissed you then as someone high on something’.  He added ‘what did you base your prediction on?’  I will answer his question now.

As a part-time immigrant in the UK (yes being an immigrant is not a crime and it can be done legally like in my case), I know how much people blame us for all the problems they face – sometimes rightly – although I think they blame the wrong people.  I rightly called the UK referendum for Brexit because of what I felt among the people.  And it is for the same reason that I thought Trump would win despite the fact that I don’t live in the US.   I sympathise and understand why most people voted for Brexit and I suspect the majority voted for Trump – precisely for the same reason.

As a citizen of any country, you would think that you are priority in your own country.  I always made the same argument at Entebbe Airport migration clearance counters – as a Ugandan I expected to be attended to first.  Thankfully, this was now fixed. 

The irony is that the very economic system that the citizens of these two countries (and majority of western world) espouse is the system that is causing them trouble.  Capitalism emphasizes profitability and efficiency.  Most manufacturers and businessmen were quick to realize that free movement of people and goods (in the case of Europe) and manufacturing in far off, but cheaper places like Asia (in the case of US) would guarantee them bumper profits.  As capitalists they embraced and even pushed for a wider EU zone and manufacturing outside their own countries. This guaranteed them more profits.  The one who pays the piper calls the tune. The rich businessmen bankroll the politicians.  The politicians were pushed further and further for the expansionist and globalised trade arrangements.  As they got into bed with their rich friends, they got alienated from the ordinary people who wield the actual power (read have votes) in these fair and just countries.  The ordinary people and in some cases poor – yes there are poor people in these places – saw their jobs as industrial workers either being taken away by cheaper labour from Eastern Europe or lost totally in the case were manufacturing was relocated to Asia.

The nationalists ceased the opportunity.  They told the ordinary citizen that it is this uncontrolled immigration and relocation of their manufacturing industries that is causing them all this suffering.  In the meantime, the political establishment on both sides (left and right) argued that free movement of people is the way to go.  That stopping or cutting back free movement of people would mean scaling back growth. I suspect the truth is that going against the principles of free movement people meant losing monetary support from their business friends. 

At the macro level, there is evidence that free trade and movement of people leads to growth of the national economy as a whole.  The trouble is that this growth seems to be concentrated in the hands of a few.  Data available indicates that the gap between the rich and the poor in the western world has grown wider over the last 5-10 years and still continues to grow.  It is now the rich people with their politician friends (also called the establishment) against the ordinary people (one leader in Uganda prefers to call them the peasants).  The nationalist saw a vacuum and occupied it and in the process whipped up some sentiments that have led to ugly situations.  The establishment has to go back to the drawing table and reconnect with the voters.  People in UK are not against free trade.  That is why many are insisting that they want the trade with Europe to continue but they are concerned about the uncontrolled inflow of people from other countries.   They want to be able to get a job as an industrial worker if that is what they can get.   They want the manufacturer or businessman to pay the going rate for UK citizens, not to pay a rate that is low because the manufacturer/business man can have access to cheaper labour from Eastern Europe.  An ordinary citizen in the US wants to work in a manufacturing plant in the US and be paid a reasonable wage, relocating all manufacturing to some cheap place in Bangladesh is good for the investor businessman and gives him bumper profit but leaves the guy in US with no job (or reasonably paying job).

This is a wake up call and it is time for those established (businessmen and their politician friends) to reconnect with the ordinary voter.  In the meantime as they re-organise themselves, the nationalists (who I think are lying about their motives) have strategically positioned themselves.  Look out for Marie Le Pen next.